U.S.-Iran framework deal seen as a major missed opportunity, but not irreversible

Former Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin and strategist Udi Evental argue that President Donald Trump’s framework understanding with Iran, signed at Versailles, is a historic strategic mistake, though not yet the end of the road. They say Washington still has leverage because Iran is under severe domestic strain, and they warn Israel, which was sidelined from the talks, must urgently restore strategic coordination with the United States at every level.

According to their reading, the 60-day negotiating period for a final settlement can be extended, and talks may continue beyond the U.S. midterm elections in November. The draft understanding, they say, gives Iran dangerous concessions: it links the war with Iran to the fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon, effectively constraining Israeli military freedom there, while on the nuclear issue it leaves key questions unresolved and accepts dilution of enriched uranium inside Iran under IAEA supervision. It also permits immediate Iranian oil sales and unfreezes all $24 billion of Iranian funds, with sanctions relief tied to the memorandum rather than a final deal.

The authors say the deal also opens the Strait of Hormuz for traffic, while Iran is only barred from charging passage fees for the first 60 days. They argue Trump’s eagerness to end the war weakened the credible military threat, allowed Iran to preserve leverage over the Gulf and global energy markets, and ignored the issue of Iranian missiles, which are not addressed in the talks. They also contend Iran continues to threaten Israel and to hint that it will not return the strait to its previous status.

Despite this, they say the United States can still force better terms by keeping strong naval forces in the region, preparing to block Iranian interference with shipping, replenishing global oil stocks, and rebuilding military inventories. They call for renewed Israeli-American coordination, a joint intelligence and contingency framework, agreed red lines on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and a broader regional security architecture. In their view, without a tougher approach, Washington risks a historic failure that would strengthen Iran, weaken U.S. standing, and carry global consequences.