Likud Faces Pressure to Cancel Deal with Smotrich, Sign with Winter

Sources within the Likud party are urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aides to reconsider the planned surplus agreement with the Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Instead, they advocate for a surplus agreement with the new "Am Israel" party, headed by Ofer Winter, provided Winter's party successfully passes the electoral threshold.

While Likud announced a surplus agreement with Smotrich's party two weeks ago, the formal signing has not yet occurred. Political analysts suggest this delay is strategic, allowing flexibility based on evolving poll data. The decision is expected to be finalized closer to the deadline for surplus agreements, which is 11 days before the election.

Proponents of a deal with Winter argue that securing an agreement with him, if he clears the threshold, would be a strategic move to consolidate votes within the right-wing bloc. They believe Winter attracts a new demographic from the center and moderate religious Zionist base, not automatically aligned with Likud.

Such a shift could have significant implications for the right-wing political map. If Likud cancels its commitment to Smotrich and signs with Winter, it would clear the path for a natural surplus agreement between Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir's party. This could potentially save many votes for both parties, which are currently hovering around the electoral threshold.

Conversely, if Likud adheres to its original commitment to Smotrich, Winter and Ben-Gvir would face a difficult choice: either form a surplus agreement between themselves or risk losing valuable votes if neither secures a deal with a larger party.