Poll Shows Netanyahu's Likud Strong, Benny Gantz's Party Barely Clears Threshold

A Channel 12 poll released Tuesday, 35 days before the 26th Knesset elections, indicates that the "Yashar" party led by Gadi Eisenkot would be the largest party with 23 seats. Arab parties collectively would secure 12 seats, with internal shifts observed. The poll also revealed that Benny Gantz's "Blue and White" party is struggling, barely crossing the electoral threshold with only 0.7% of the vote.

Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to maintain its strength with 20 seats, followed by Naftali Bennett's "Yahad" party with 13 seats. Among Arab parties, the Joint List led by Dr. Yusuf Jabareen is predicted to decline to 7 seats, while the United Arab List led by Dr. Mansour Abbas is expected to strengthen its position with 5 seats.

Other parties' projected seat counts include "The Democrats" (Yair Golan) with 9 seats, "Yisrael Beiteinu" (Avigdor Lieberman) with 9 seats, "Yahadut HaTorah" (Yaakov Asher) with 8 seats, "Shas" (Aryeh Deri) with 7 seats, "Otzma Yehudit" (Itamar Ben-Gvir) with 6 seats, Religious Zionism and "Zehut" (Bezalel Smotrich) with 5 seats, "Amichai Israel" (Ofer Winter) with 4 seats, and the "Reserve Soldiers and New Economy" alliance (Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha) with 4 seats.

Several parties, including "The Haredi Public" (0.3%), "Noam" (0.1%), and "Israel First" (0%), failed to cross the electoral threshold. The poll suggests that an anti-Netanyahu bloc would garner 66 seats, including 12 from Arab parties, while the current ruling coalition parties would secure 50 seats. A "third bloc" of 4 seats is attributed to Hendel and Zelicha's party.

In a hypothetical race for Prime Minister, Gadi Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 41% support compared to Netanyahu's 38%. Netanyahu, however, leads Naftali Bennett with 41% to Bennett's 37%, and also leads Avigdor Lieberman with 38% to Lieberman's 28%.