Israel Monitors Iran-Backed Militias in Iraq Amid Disarmament Ultimatum

The Iraqi government has issued an ultimatum to pro-Iranian Shiite militias, demanding they disarm by the end of September. The militias have so far rejected the demand but indicated a willingness to discuss disarmament only after a full withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. Israeli defense and security officials are closely monitoring the situation, concerned that the militias may retaliate after the deadline expires by targeting Israel, potentially with Iranian encouragement.

These Iran-funded militias, some with weapons depots near the Iraqi border, have been a focus of Israeli intelligence in recent weeks. In the past, they have launched cruise missiles and drones toward Israel, prompting Israeli military responses and diplomatic messages to Baghdad warning of escalated retaliation if the militias are not restrained. The vast geographical expanse of Iraq presents a significant challenge for intelligence agencies attempting to locate militia strongholds and weapon caches.

The United States has played a key role in mediating with the Iraqi government, urging it to rein in the militias, which are seen as destabilizing the Middle East. Washington has threatened military action if the militias do not disarm. The Iraqi government's ultimatum, partly driven by U.S. pressure, offers the withdrawal of American troops in exchange for the militias surrendering their weapons to the state.

Key militia groups, including Kata'ib Hezbollah, have rejected the disarmament demand outright but are open to negotiations contingent on a U.S. troop pullout. Both Israeli and U.S. security concerns center on the possibility that the militias will demonstrate their strength after the ultimatum expires, potentially attacking U.S. bases in the Middle East and Israel's home front. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seeks to maintain its strategic alliances with these militias, as well as with the Houthis and Hezbollah, as a means to circumvent U.S. pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's economy.