Israel Faces Snap Elections Amidst Deep Divisions and Post-October 7th Reckoning
Israel is gearing up for Knesset elections on October 27th, held against the backdrop of the ongoing war and intense scrutiny over the failures preceding the October 7th Hamas attack. The political landscape is fractured, with former military leaders emerging as key challengers to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Thirty-eight political lists have registered, but no major bloc currently appears to have a clear path to the 61-seat majority required to form a government, making smaller parties potentially decisive.
The October 7th attack remains the central issue of the campaign. Opponents are demanding accountability for the security lapse, while Netanyahu asserts he was not adequately warned by intelligence agencies and points to subsequent military operations as a measure of his government's performance. The lists themselves reflect the national trauma, featuring relatives of victims and hostages, reservists, and those involved in the initial response.
Key figures challenging Netanyahu include retired Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff, who lost family members in the Gaza conflict. Other prominent figures with military backgrounds in the running are Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Golan, and Ofer Winter. A controversy also erupted over an alleged warning to Netanyahu from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed prior to October 7th, which the Prime Minister's office has denied.
Israeli elections do not directly elect a prime minister; voters choose party lists, and the president consults with parties to determine who can best form a coalition. This process can lead to unexpected outcomes, as seen in 2009 when Netanyahu formed a government despite Kadima being the largest party, and in 2021 when Naftali Bennett became prime minister with a smaller faction. The current political divide is complex, cutting across traditional left-right lines, with former allies like Bennett and Lieberman now opposing Netanyahu alongside left-wing figures like Golan and Eisenkot.
Within Netanyahu's bloc, comprising Likud, Shas, and United Torah Judaism, disagreements persist, particularly over the military exemption for yeshiva students, which some right-wing allies oppose. Polls indicate a tight race, with Eisenkot showing strong support against Netanyahu in head-to-head matchups. The potential for coalition negotiations to fail looms, raising the possibility of further elections, as Israel has experienced multiple times since 2019. Internal divisions are seen by a majority of Israelis as the country's primary threat.
