Netanyahu Faces Dilemma: Bolster Likud or Aid Allies Before Election
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is navigating a complex political challenge ahead of the 2026 elections, facing a choice between strengthening his Likud party or maintaining support for smaller allied parties. According to an analysis by Maariv's Sophy Ron Moriah, bolstering Likud could alienate parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Ofer Vinter, potentially causing them to lose votes. Conversely, attempting to curb Likud's growth could weaken the party and jeopardize Netanyahu's position.
Recent polls suggest that Likud, along with parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and Vinter, could collectively secure 35 to 37 seats. An additional 15 to 16 seats are expected from two ultra-Orthodox factions, bringing Netanyahu's potential bloc support to 49 to 53 mandates. However, the viability of smaller parties remains uncertain, with Smotrich's party polling around five seats and Vinter's around four, both risking failure to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold.
Moria outlines two scenarios. In the first, Likud strengthens to approximately 23 seats, Ben-Gvir's party gains 8-9 seats, but one or both smaller parties fail to enter the Knesset. This outcome could lead to opposition parties securing 61 or more mandates. In the second scenario, Likud weakens to 17-18 seats, allowing Smotrich's and Vinter's parties to potentially cross the threshold, but this might undermine Netanyahu's leadership within the bloc.
Netanyahu faces the difficult task of preventing voters from shifting to Ben-Gvir while also stopping Likud's decline. Aggressively targeting allied parties could backfire, causing vote loss within the bloc, while refraining from direct attacks might allow these parties to continue drawing from Likud's electorate. Moriah suggests Netanyahu's primary goal is to prevent an opposition majority, aiming for a bloc of 48-50 seats, possibly with the support of Arab factions.
The core dilemma for Netanyahu, as described by Moriah, is whether to consolidate votes within his bloc or sacrifice some Likud support to ensure smaller allied parties enter the Knesset. Achieving both objectives simultaneously is deemed extremely challenging.
