Likud May Repeat Labor's 2022 Election Blunder, Analyst Warns
An expert suggests the Likud party risks repeating the "political short-sightedness" that led to the Labor party's defeat in the 2022 elections, according to an analysis by Michael Kleiner for Maariv. The article draws a parallel between Likud's current stance on Ofer Winter and his "Am Echad" list and Merav Michaeli's misjudgment of the Meretz party's electoral viability.
Michaeli, then leader of the Labor party, reportedly believed Meretz had a secure base of at least four Knesset seats and hidden supporters, dismissing warnings of its potential collapse. She suspected a plot to merge Meretz's identity with Labor's, thereby aiding Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party in attracting more right-leaning Labor voters. This miscalculation, the author argues, cost Michaeli her political career.
The current situation with Ofer Winter is presented as analogous. Kleiner posits that Likud's approach to Winter, possibly hoping he will withdraw from the election, is misguided. Winter's list is expected to garner at least three Knesset seats regardless. The article suggests that if the Religious Zionism party prioritizes a surplus vote agreement with Otzma Yehudit over one with Likud, Likud could lose at least half a Knesset seat. "Am Echad" is identified as Likud's only potential partner to salvage the situation, though a party below the electoral threshold is not typically included in surplus vote agreements.
Beyond vote agreements, the author highlights Ofer Winter's appeal as a politician perceived to align his actions with his beliefs, offering effective criticism of Gadi Eisenkot. This appeal, the article suggests, draws votes and undermines confidence in Eisenkot's leadership, potentially benefiting Benjamin Netanyahu.
The article also touches on the perception of Hamas's current state, describing it as a "virtually destroyed force" in Gaza. It criticizes a narrative, allegedly promoted by Hamas and the Israeli opposition, that portrays the organization as still capable of significant action. This narrative, the author contends, serves to undermine claims of complete victory by those who promised to dismantle Hamas.
Finally, the piece analyzes Ehud Barak's recent criticism of Netanyahu regarding intelligence warnings prior to the October 7th attacks. Kleiner argues that Barak's own reasoning, suggesting that earlier intelligence could have prevented the disaster, inadvertently aids Netanyahu by implying that even with prior knowledge, the outcome might not have changed if Netanyahu didn't act decisively. The article concludes by noting that the commission investigating the events will face challenges in holding Netanyahu accountable if he was unaware of the impending threat.
