New Political Party Could Reshape Israeli Election Landscape, Polls Show

A new poll aggregation by Globes indicates that the upcoming Israeli elections remain highly fluid, with the Likud and Yesh Atid parties tied for first place, each securing 22 Knesset seats. The Yamina party, led by Naftali Bennett, has weakened to 11 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 9. Several other parties, including Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and United Torah Judaism, each hold 8 seats. The Joint List maintains 7 seats, Religious Zionism has 6, and Ra'am has 5.

A significant factor influencing the election outcome appears to be the performance of the new party led by Yoaz Hendel and Ze'ev Elkin. This party is currently hovering around the electoral threshold, passing it in some polls and failing to do so in others. Polls are divided on whether this party will secure the necessary votes to enter the Knesset, with some projecting 4 seats and others showing it falling short.

This uncertainty is critical because the formation of a governing coalition hinges on this party's success. If Hendel and Elkin's party passes the electoral threshold, the current coalition bloc would lead with 55 seats, while the opposition (excluding Arab parties) would have 51. However, if they fail to pass, the coalition bloc would drop to 51 seats, and the opposition would gain a lead with 53 seats. The party leaders have stated they see themselves as a "third bloc," potentially disrupting the traditional coalition-opposition dynamic.

The article draws parallels to past elections, highlighting how parties like The New Right and Zehut in April 2019, and Meretz in the most recent November 2022 elections, were predicted to pass the electoral threshold by polls but ultimately failed to do so. This historical context suggests that the current situation remains unpredictable, with the electoral threshold playing a decisive role.

Beyond the Hendel-Elkin party, other parties like Winter's party are consistently clearing the threshold, while Ra'am and Religious Zionism appear stable. However, the article cautions against complacency, reminding readers of past electoral surprises.