Polls Misrepresent Likud's Strength, Claims Strategist Shlomo Filber

Shlomo Filber, a pollster and strategist, has sharply criticized recent election polls, asserting they inaccurately depict a weakening of the Likud party. Filber argues that Likud is actually strengthening, citing a "return home" phenomenon and undecided voters shifting back to the party. He questions why polls consistently show Likud declining while the right-wing bloc is reportedly growing.

Filber proposes two explanations for this discrepancy. The first involves the strategy of the "Yashr" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Filber suggests Eisenkot aims to form a minority government with Arab support, which would require Yashr to be the largest party by at least seven seats. He believes polls artificially lower Likud's numbers to help Yashr achieve this, while also promoting a "voter suppression" strategy on the right by discouraging Likud and Haredi party voters.

The second explanation Filber offers relates to pollsters gradually adjusting their projections as election day nears. He posits that as the election approaches, pollsters will have to acknowledge that the ten seats previously attributed to Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid will not materialize from the right. To compensate, they are currently directing these votes to centrist parties like those led by Avigdor Liberman (implied by "Winter") and Zehava Galon (implied by "Zelicha"), who will later return these votes to the right. Filber predicts the true picture will emerge closer to the election, estimating a potential 58-59 seats for the right-wing bloc, contrasting with Channel 14's reported 64 seats.