Arab Parties Unite and Split Ahead of Israeli Elections

The Arab political landscape in Israel is undergoing significant shifts ahead of the 26th Knesset elections, scheduled for October 27. The Joint List, a significant bloc, has reformed, uniting three parties: the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the Arab Movement for Change, and the National Democratic Assembly. This coalition aims to maximize Arab representation in the upcoming Knesset. The Joint List is headed by Yusuf Jabareen, followed by Ahmad Tibi and Sami Abu Shehadeh, with a total of 15 candidates.

In contrast, the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, will contest the elections independently, as it did in 2021. A notable development for the United Arab List is the addition of Yoav Segalovich, former deputy minister of public security and ex-leader of the Yesh Atid party, to its second position. This move is intended to broaden the list's appeal beyond the traditional Arab electorate and foster Jewish-Arab political partnership.

The "For Everyone a Place" list, previously in discussions to merge with the Joint List, announced on September 8 that it would not be participating in the elections to avoid splitting Arab votes and to focus on increasing voter turnout. This decision removes them from the electoral contest.

Despite their organizational and political separation, the Joint List and the United Arab List have signed a surplus vote agreement. This arrangement allows them to pool surplus votes for the allocation of additional seats, aiming to preserve their collective electoral strength. This agreement does not signify a merger but rather a strategic electoral pact.

Recent polls from September indicate a fluctuating distribution of seats, with the Joint List projected to win between 7 and 8 seats, and the United Arab List between 5 and 6 seats. These figures are sensitive to voter turnout and vote distribution, highlighting the dynamic nature of the race. Voter turnout among Arab citizens is considered a crucial factor, alongside the threshold requirement for Knesset entry, which makes vote transfers between lists significant.

Mansour Abbas has articulated a vision where Arab parties could play a role in forming the next government, drawing on the United Arab List's experience in the previous coalition government. This possibility remains a central theme in the Arab political discourse, alongside pressing domestic issues such as crime, housing, education, employment, and local authority budgets.