Arab Parties Form Alliances and Strategies Ahead of Israeli Elections

The Arab political landscape in Israel is solidifying ahead of the October 27th elections, with the formation of the "Joint List" and the "United Arab List" as the primary contenders. The Joint List, a reunification of three parties, the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the Arab Movement for Change, and the National Democratic Assembly, will be headed by Yousef Jabareen, followed by Ahmad Tibi and Sami Abu Shehadeh. The list, which includes 15 candidates, will run separately from the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas.

The United Arab List is pursuing a different strategy, aiming to broaden its appeal by including Yoav Segalovich, a former deputy minister and ex-leader of the Yesh Atid party, as its second candidate. Abbas and Segalovich stated this move is intended to foster Arab-Jewish political partnership within the list. This marks a departure from the 2021 elections, where the United Arab List joined the governing coalition; this year, it is running independently.

A third Arab-Jewish list, "We All Have a Place," led by Rula Daoud and Alon-Lee Green, announced on September 8th that it would not participate in the elections to avoid wasting votes. This decision removes a potential factor that internal polls had suggested could influence vote distribution.

Despite their political and organizational separation, the Joint List and the United Arab List have agreed to a surplus vote pact. This agreement aims to maximize the number of parliamentary seats by pooling leftover votes after the initial seat allocation, reducing the chance of votes being lost. This is an electoral arrangement, not a merger.

Recent polls from September show a shifting representation for Arab parties. A Kantar poll published on September 6th predicted 7 seats for the Joint List and 6 for the United Arab List. A subsequent Kantar poll on September 9th maintained the Joint List's prediction at 7 seats but reduced the United Arab List's to 5. These figures are considered snapshots in time, as voter turnout and vote distribution can change before election day.

Key factors influencing the Arab representation include overall Arab voter turnout and how votes are distributed among the various lists, including non-Arab parties that are also seeking Arab votes. Mansour Abbas has suggested that the next government might require the support of an Arab party, reflecting his party's shift from parliamentary opposition to seeking direct influence in government formation since 2021.

Daily issues such as crime, housing, education, employment, and local authority budgets are central to the Arab parties' platforms, alongside the Palestinian issue and Arab-state relations. The election campaign has also seen legal challenges, with several parties, including Otzma Yehudit and Likud, filing requests to disqualify lists and candidates, including Sami Abu Shehadeh and Ofer Cassif. The Central Elections Committee is expected to review these requests in the coming week.