Hamas Avoids Retaliation for Strikes Amidst Low Public Support for Conflict

Despite recent Israeli airstrikes that eliminated two Hamas brigade commanders, Nael Abu Abid of Rafah and Muhammad Yazouri of Khan Yunis, Hamas has decided against retaliating. This decision stems from a significant fear within the organization that any response would provide the Israeli military with justification to continue its operations in Gaza. Hamas leadership reportedly believes the IDF holds the upper hand on the battlefield and wishes to avoid giving them a reason to re-enter Gaza or escalate the conflict.

A recent poll indicates a surprising lack of public appetite for renewed hostilities. Only 13% of Palestinians, and fewer than 10% specifically in Gaza, support armed conflict with Israel. The survey, conducted by the Palestinian JMCC research institute, suggests that a majority of Palestinians, approximately 55.8% (with about 65% in Gaza), believe that peaceful negotiations are the most effective path to achieving their goals of ending the occupation and establishing a state. Another 17.8% of respondents, including 21.3% in Gaza, favor a peaceful popular intifada.

Hamas's current policy appears to be one of resilience and waiting for a political solution. There are reports that the organization has considered a proposal from Mohammed Dahlan to disarm its heavy weaponry in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal, an end to assassinations, and the payment of salaries to Hamas officials. However, the full implementation of such an agreement remains uncertain, with Dahlan previously stating in August that its success hinges on Israel's complete commitment to ceasing military activity in the Strip.

The targeted killing of Nael Abu Abid, who also served as Hamas's head of operations, was carried out by the IDF with Shin Bet intelligence. He was reportedly responsible for directing militant activities and terror plots from the Rafah brigade and had recently been involved in rebuilding its operational capacity. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the operation eliminated a commander who advanced terror plots, emphasizing a policy of targeting terrorists while avoiding civilian casualties. Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a joint statement asserting that "no terrorist is immune and Hamas will not be in Gaza."