Hamas Avoids Retaliation for Strikes Amidst Low Public Support for Conflict

Despite recent Israeli airstrikes that eliminated two Hamas brigade commanders, the organization has decided against retaliating. This decision stems from a significant fear within Hamas that any response would provide the Israeli military (IDF) with justification to resume widespread military operations in Gaza. Hamas leadership reportedly believes the IDF currently holds the upper hand on the battlefield and wishes to avoid giving them a pretext to re-enter Gaza and escalate the conflict.

A recent poll indicates a surprising lack of public appetite for renewed hostilities. Only 13% of Palestinians, and less than 10% specifically in Gaza, currently support armed conflict against Israel. The survey, conducted by the Palestinian JMCC research institute, suggests that a majority of Palestinians, around 55.8% (with approximately 65% in Gaza), believe that peaceful negotiations are the most effective path to achieving their goals of ending the occupation and establishing a state.

Furthermore, the survey revealed that 17.8% of all respondents, including 21.3% in Gaza, favor a peaceful popular intifada. This data suggests a lack of widespread backing in Gaza for continued armed struggle.

Hamas's current policy appears to be one of resilience and waiting for a political solution. There are reports that Hamas has considered a proposal from Mohammed Dahlan to disarm its heavy weaponry in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal, an end to targeted killings, and the payment of salaries to Hamas officials. However, the full implementation of such an agreement remains uncertain, with Dahlan previously stating that its success depends on Israel's complete commitment to ceasing military activity in the Strip.

The recent targeted killing of Nael Abu Abid, the Hamas commander of the Rafah brigade and head of operations, was carried out by the IDF with the Shin Bet intelligence agency. Abid was reportedly responsible for directing terrorist activities and was involved in rebuilding the Rafah brigade's operational capabilities. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the operation eliminated a terrorist who advanced attack plans against Israeli forces, emphasizing a policy of targeting terrorists while avoiding civilian casualties. Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu jointly declared that no terrorist is immune and that Hamas will not remain in Gaza.