The emerging outline of a U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war contains a paradox, Reuters reported on Saturday: the economic incentives meant to persuade Tehran to comply could strengthen the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one of the main bodies Washington and its allies oppose and that many Western countries designate as a terror organization.
For years, the Guards have prospered under international sanctions and built a sprawling business empire spanning oil, construction, shipping, ports, communications, tourism and logistics. As Washington and Tehran prepare for talks that could release billions of dollars for Iran, reopen the economy to foreign investment and potentially restore oil exports, Iranian sources told Reuters the Guards are positioned to capture a large share of the benefit. One senior source described them as the war’s "real winners," saying they helped ensure the survival of Iran’s Islamic system and have long managed much of the country’s sanctions-evasion machinery.
The reported interim deal, announced this week, is expected to allow waivers for sanctioned oil sales. A broader deal could lift more sanctions and give Iran access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. The Guards do not publish financial data, but another senior Iranian source said any effort to revive the economy would expand their influence, since they already control billion-dollar trading networks, oil operations, shipping fleets and construction businesses. Their engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbiya, oversees hundreds of affiliated firms involved in infrastructure, energy, media, car production, tourism and logistics.
The article says Iran’s investment rules require foreign companies to work with local partners, which could effectively make Guard-linked firms gatekeepers for foreign investors. That could leave Western companies exposed to legal risk even if they never sign directly with the Guards. Jeremy Fanner, a former U.S. Treasury sanctions investigator now with Hughes Hubbard & Reed, said, "The Revolutionary Guard is the body pulling the strings behind the oil sector, so all the legal implications of doing business with them cannot be ignored." He added that even with interim approval for oil exports, U.S. firms could still face exposure because of the Guards, and pointed to a 2016 U.S. law allowing terror victims to sue companies that aid designated groups. The White House and a Guards spokesman did not comment.
