Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Could Be Biggest Winners From Emerging U.S. Deal

A Reuters report says the emerging U.S.-Iran agreement could end up strengthening Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, even though Washington and its allies designate it a terrorist group. The article says the Guards have long prospered under sanctions and are now positioned to capture a large share of any financial windfall from eased restrictions, renewed oil exports, and foreign investment.

The IRGC has built a sprawling business empire over decades, with interests in oil, construction, shipping, ports, communications, logistics, tourism, and parts of the auto industry. Its engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbia, oversees hundreds of companies involved in major infrastructure and energy projects. Because Iranian law requires foreign investors to work with local partners, the Guards’ extensive network could make them a de facto gatekeeper for lucrative sectors.

The report says the interim deal announced this week would allow waivers for sanctioned oil sales, while a broader agreement could remove remaining sanctions altogether and give Iran access to a special $300 billion reconstruction fund. Even if a comprehensive deal fails and broad sanctions stay in place, the IRGC could still benefit from the oil-sale exceptions and from its long experience in evading restrictions.

Since the war began on February 28, the Guards have further expanded their domestic power. One senior source described them as the “real winners of the war,” saying that after securing the survival of Iran’s Islamic system, they are best placed to profit from any sanctions relief. The same source said their control of smuggling and sanctions-evasion networks over recent decades makes them central to both Iran’s economy and the risks facing any agreement. Reuters also noted that U.S. “maximum pressure” measures under Donald Trump made those smuggling networks harder to sustain and raised their operating costs.