Deal with Tehran Could Make Iran’s Revolutionary Guards the Biggest Winners

A Reuters report says the emerging U.S.-Iran agreement could end up strengthening Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, even though Washington and its allies designate it a terrorist organization. The deal is meant to give Tehran incentives to honor commitments and move toward a broader settlement, but those same sanctions relief measures could give the Guards a far larger economic role.

The Guards have long operated as a vast business empire spanning oil, construction, shipping, ports, communications, tourism, logistics and even parts of the auto industry. Since the war began on February 28, their influence has reportedly grown further, with one senior source calling them the “real winners of the war” because they helped preserve Iran’s Islamic system and are best placed to benefit from any easing of sanctions.

Under the interim deal announced this week, the United States could issue waivers for sales of sanctioned oil. A broader agreement could lift remaining sanctions entirely and give Iran access to a special reconstruction fund worth $300 billion. That would likely channel major rewards and foreign investment toward networks already tied to the Guards, including their engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbia, which oversees hundreds of companies in major infrastructure and energy projects.

The article says this also makes the Guards a possible obstacle to the agreement. Because foreign investors are required under Iranian law to work with local partners, companies linked to the Guards could become gatekeepers in the most profitable sectors. Even if no comprehensive deal is reached and broad sanctions remain, the Guards could still profit from oil-export waivers and from their long experience in evading sanctions. Reuters notes that this model became harder after Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, and that lifting restrictions now could strengthen their smuggling networks again.