Saudi Arabia Faces Houthi Escalation Amidst Weakened Coalition

The Houthi movement has achieved significant military gains in Yemen in recent weeks, escalating conflict with Saudi Arabia. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia announced it intercepted a Houthi drone near Mecca, the first such attack on the holy city in nine years, triggering air raid sirens in Mecca, Taif, and Jeddah. The Houthis claimed to have shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet and stated that Saudi Arabia conducted 52 airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, targeting civilian sites.

Ines Nissen-Lubton, a Yemen researcher at the Open University and Tel Aviv University's Dayan Center, described the situation as a "major defeat" for the Saudi-backed Yemeni army and its coalition partners, noting that the forces involved are the most skilled and equipped available. However, she added that the Houthis are not dominant in all areas, and the coalition is regrouping for further attacks, including on the coast.

The fragile ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition collapsed two months ago. Since then, the Houthis have been launching daily missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia, hitting infrastructure and civilians. Nissen-Lubton observed a lack of intervention from the "Mecca Alliance," comprising Turkey and Pakistan, despite their mutual defense agreements, suggesting that Saudi Arabia is currently fighting alone. She also noted that former US President Trump has distanced himself from the conflict, exacerbating Saudi feelings of abandonment and prompting them to seek regional alliances.

The Houthis' recent successes include capturing thousands of square kilometers, pushing back opposing forces, and seizing strategic islands and territory at the Bab al-Mandab strait. Western European military officials reportedly assess that Saudi forces are struggling to repel the Houthi advance and have a low chance of recapturing the Red Sea port of Mokha soon. The Bab al-Mandab strait, a crucial trade route, has become increasingly unsafe, with insurance companies refusing to cover ships passing through due to Houthi actions and ongoing conflicts with Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab. The global trade route has seen a significant decline in traffic since late 2023 due to the Houthi war against Israel.

In a related development, Saudi Arabia shut down a strategic oil pipeline this week, preventing the need to transport oil through the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandab. This decision, attributed to drone attacks originating from Iraq, contributed to rising global fuel prices and occurred as the Houthis targeted sensitive sites within Saudi Arabia, including an international airport and energy infrastructure. The Saudis are reportedly attempting to organize a new Yemeni fighting force led by Tariq Saleh, commander of the 'Popular Resistance Forces,' with significant financial backing, aiming to recapture coastal areas. Nissen-Lubton concluded that the Houthi strength is undeniable, but the coalitions formed against them are "not serious enough."