Houthis Target Mecca, Saudi Arabia's 'Mecca Alliance' With Turkey, Pakistan Remains Inactive

Saudi Arabia reported an escalation in Houthi attacks on its territory Tuesday, with air raid sirens sounding in the holy cities of Mecca and Jeddah, as well as the city of Taif. These areas had not previously been targeted in the current wave of Houthi assaults. The strikes follow recent Houthi claims of Saudi attacks in Yemen, to which the rebels vowed retaliation. This development raises questions about the effectiveness of the recently formed "Mecca Alliance," a military pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan designed for mutual defense.

The "Mecca Agreement," signed last month, stipulates that an attack on one signatory is considered an attack on all three. However, the alliance has yet to demonstrate its efficacy in defending Saudi Arabia against Houthi or other Iran-backed proxy attacks. Both Turkey and Pakistan have so far limited their response to condemnations, despite expectations they would provide substantial support.

Following a recent drone attack by Iran-aligned militias in Iraq on Saudi Arabia's "East-West" oil pipeline, which caused damage and injured civilians, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry issued a strong condemnation, calling the attacks a violation of international law and a threat to regional stability. Turkey also issued a sharp condemnation of the drone strikes originating from Iraq. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly discussed de-escalation efforts with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who condemned the Houthi attacks and praised Saudi Arabia's restraint.

Despite these condemnations, Houthi attacks have continued. In addition to the alerts in Mecca and Jeddah on Tuesday, earlier alerts were issued in Abha and Khamis Mushait overnight, with further reports of alerts in Al-Ala, Jazan, Abha, Jeddah, Taif, and Yanbu. The official spokesperson for the Saudi-led coalition confirmed that Houthi attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, including missiles and drones on Khamis Mushait, Abha, and Taif, resulted in 13 civilian injuries and damage to seven homes and two vehicles.

Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former National Security Council official, noted the symbolic significance of targeting Mecca, Islam's holiest city and the location of the "Mecca Alliance" signing. He expressed disappointment from Saudi Arabia, suggesting that the alliance partners, particularly Turkey and Pakistan, have not fully committed to its terms, possibly due to the agreement not yet being ratified. This perceived lack of support has led Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to travel to Egypt to meet with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

Guzansky described the situation as a "catastrophe" for Saudi Arabia, attributing it partly to their own strategic decisions, including expelling Emiratis from Yemen, threatening to retake Hodeidah and Sanaa, and troop build-ups along the border. He pointed to retaliatory attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure following Saudi strikes in Iraq as an example of the consequences. The Houthis have gained control of the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait, impacting Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea and threatening northern Red Sea shipping lanes.

Guzansky suggested that Israel should provide quiet, indirect assistance to Saudi Arabia, such as missile defense, without direct military intervention. He emphasized that such support should be discreet to avoid embarrassing Saudi Arabia or provoking opposition in the Middle East, and that Israel should not demand normalization in return. He also advised against deploying Israeli naval forces to Bab al-Mandab, which could complicate the situation.

Meanwhile, the civil war in Yemen has reignited between the Houthi rebels and the internationally recognized government forces supported by Riyadh, following a four-year lull. The Houthis recently made significant territorial gains along Yemen's southwestern coast, effectively controlling the Bab al-Mandab strait. The UN refugee agency reported that over 100,000 people have been internally displaced, with thousands more fleeing to Djibouti. The Houthi-affiliated Saba news agency later denied launching any missiles or drones toward Mecca, calling the reports "false information" spread by Saudi Arabia to tarnish their image.