German Election Results Alarm Israel, But Party's Path to Power Remains Unclear

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved a significant victory in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, underscoring its growing popularity. This success has drawn particular attention from Israel, with the Israeli Ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor, stating that the results should concern anyone invested in the future of Jewish life in Germany. Political scientist Alex Yusupov discussed the AfD's complex stance on antisemitism, Islamism, and Germany's Nazi past in an interview with Liorah Schwartz on Channel 9's "War and Peace" program.

Yusupov confirmed that the concerns are well-founded, attributing the AfD's success to its anti-establishment platform. He noted that while the party claims to combat antisemitism and Islamism, its rhetoric regarding Germany's Nazi era raises serious questions. The AfD has proposed controversial ideas, such as segregating schools based on students' origins and advocating for civilian patrols for security. Furthermore, some party leaders have called for a reevaluation of Germany's historical narrative concerning the Nazi period, with one leader describing it as a "stain" on German history.

The AfD's apparent paradox of fighting Islamism while exhibiting problematic views on the past is explained by Yusupov as a strategic alignment with Israel as a perceived ally against perceived foreign elements in German society. He suggests the party's popularity is fueled by conspiracy theories about global elites, which share structural similarities with classic antisemitic tropes. While outwardly pro-Israel, this stance is seen as a tactical maneuver rather than a genuine ideological alignment.

Regarding the AfD's electoral performance, Yusupov cautioned against extrapolating the 44% result in Saxony-Anhalt to a nationwide phenomenon, though the party does lead in many regions. He acknowledged that this level of support could theoretically enable the AfD to form a government in a specific state, potentially through alliances. However, he emphasized that the party currently lacks the necessary seats for a majority and that any potential coalition would require compromises, which contradicts the AfD's current platform of uncompromising opposition.

Looking ahead to federal elections, Yusupov stated that predicting outcomes three years in advance is unreliable due to the rapidly changing political landscape. While the AfD is popular nationwide as an opposition force, it has not achieved similar vote shares elsewhere. He concluded that a scenario where the AfD gains federal power in the near future is unlikely, as the German political system relies on coalitions that necessitate compromise, something the AfD has not yet demonstrated a willingness to engage in. Remaining in opposition allows the party to criticize without accountability, whereas governing would force it to prove the feasibility of its promises.