Trump's Stance Hinders Netanyahu, Israel Misses Regional Opportunity
The Israeli government, after maintaining a policy of "quiet at all costs" until the October 7th attacks, has shifted to an "all-out war" approach without a clear political objective, according to analyst Israel Ziv. This shift is characterized as "using force without a brain," a reversal of the previous strategy but sharing the same fundamental flaw: the absence of a political goal to guide military action. This has led to the erosion of significant military achievements and a missed regional opportunity.
The article criticizes a narrative of "deduction" within the government, which deflects blame for the October 7th failures onto "the weak" rather than acknowledging systemic issues. This prevents learning from mistakes and leads to repeating them in a new form. The Defense Minister's threats of an Iranian escalation have faded, and he now focuses on Hezbollah, an organization he failed to disarm as previously defined. The article notes the neglect of a framework agreement in Washington that created an incentive for the Lebanese government to act against Hezbollah, suggesting the current government prefers to escalate the northern front for electoral benefit.
Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb strait, crucial for global trade, is effectively closed due to the Houthi takeover of Yemeni coastlines and islands. This chokepoint handles approximately 12% of global trade and 30% of container traffic. Its closure, combined with the existing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, creates a significant supply chain crisis affecting numerous countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, African nations, India, China, Japan, Europe, and Israel, whose port of Eilat is already inactive.
Israel, in a different political climate, could have leveraged this challenge by leading a technological and operational effort to reopen the strait, transforming military capability into significant political capital. Instead, the country is described as having a "messianic coalition" whose most "enlightened" policy consists of rhetoric that no longer resonates beyond its base. The article concludes that the current government, responsible for fostering Hamas, failing on October 7th, and returning to security buffer zones in Gaza and Lebanon, faces a triple failure. Prime Minister Netanyahu's hoped-for victory lap with Donald Trump is unlikely, leaving Israel with dwindling opportunities in the remaining weeks before the 2026 elections.
