The article argues that Israel could soon face a more serious strategic threat from Turkey than from Iran, especially after what it describes as Donald Trump’s abrupt shift on Israel’s northern security concerns and his willingness to fold Hezbollah into a ceasefire arrangement with Iran. It says Turkey, a NATO member with the alliance’s second-largest army after the United States, has about 480,000 active troops, extensive reserves, 2,200 tanks, 14 submarines, a helicopter carrier, frigates, and a modern domestic defense industry that now produces roughly 80% of its weapons.
The piece highlights Turkey’s regional footprint, including military bases in Qatar, Somalia, northern Cyprus, Libya and Syria, as well as direct operations in northern Syria and Iraq against Kurdish aspirations linked to the PKK. It says Ankara’s naval doctrine, known as “Blue Homeland,” seeks dominance in the eastern Mediterranean, the Aegean and the Black Sea, bringing it into friction with Greece and Cyprus, which have aligned militarily with Israel. It also notes that Turkish drones, especially the Bayraktar TB2, have become major exports to 34 countries after combat use in Nagorno-Karabakh, Libya and Ukraine.
At the same time, the article argues Turkey has major weaknesses that would limit any prolonged war. It says the country imports more than 90% of its energy, mainly from Russia, Iran and Gulf states, and that rising oil prices have damaged its economy, with a current-account deficit of $196 billion since 2020. By contrast, Israel is described as energy independent enough to export gas, cover 38% of its imported oil and coal costs, and generate 75% of its electricity from Israeli gas, alongside an $11 billion current-account surplus over 2020 to 2025.
The article adds that Turkey suffers from low female labor participation, large shadow economy losses estimated at 16% to over 25% of GDP, a five-year inflation total of 500%, and a lira that has lost 87% of its value against the dollar since January 2020. Inflation was 32.61% over the past year, with a May reading of 1.71%, while interest rates remain at 37% and 10-year government bonds yield 33%. It says the IMF and OECD want strict monetary policy to continue, but that fiscal tightening would also squeeze defense spending.
The article concludes that Israel still holds a clear qualitative edge in air power, electronic warfare and cyber capabilities, citing its F-35 fleet, but warns that a direct conflict with Turkey would also depend heavily on U.S. support, regional allies, and Israel’s own willingness and ability to absorb losses.
