Israel's 2026 Knesset Election: Parties Finalize Lists Amidst Political Fragmentation

Israeli parties submitted their electoral lists for the 26th Knesset elections, scheduled for October 27, 2026. A total of 38 lists will compete for the votes of over 7.3 million eligible voters, an increase of approximately 548,000 from the previous election in 2022. It is anticipated that only 12 lists will surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation in Israel's single-district proportional representation system.

Within the Likud party, leader Benjamin Netanyahu strategically placed loyalists who support his judicial overhaul policies in prominent positions on the party's list, while sidelining potential rivals. Netanyahu secured the ability to appoint eight candidates, but struggled to attract popular figures, instead appointing less favored individuals like Defense Minister Israel Katz and Foreign Minister G Gideon Sa'ar. Polls suggest Likud could drop from its current 32 seats to between 20 and 23.

Far-right parties are running on three separate lists, advocating for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank, annexation of these territories, and a shift towards authoritarian rule. These include Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism allied with Moshe Feiglin's Zehut, and Ofir Ventour's Am Israel. Polls predict Otzma Yehudit will win 7-8 seats, the Religious Zionism-Zehut list 4-5 seats, and Am Israel 4 seats.

The opposition bloc, comprising parties opposing Netanyahu, is fragmented in its leadership but united in its opposition to him and its stance on key issues. Gadi Eisenkot's National Unity party is polling strongest within this bloc, projected to win 23-25 seats. Other opposition lists include Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid's Bayahad (projected 12-14 seats), Yair Golan's Democrats (10-11 seats), and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu (9-10 seats). This bloc generally supports maintaining settlements, marginalizing the Palestinian issue, and enforcing mandatory conscription for Haredi men, while opposing the inclusion of Arab parties in a governing coalition.

Arab parties are running on two lists: the Arab Democratic List, formed by three parties, and the United List, which includes a former Israeli police brigadier general. The United List's alliance with the former officer is seen as an attempt to join a future government coalition. Polls project the Arab Democratic List to win 8-9 seats and the United List 4-5 seats.

The upcoming election is considered pivotal, potentially unseating Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister. While polls suggest the opposition may win more seats, forming a government could be challenging due to the difficulty in securing a 61-seat majority and the opposition's general reluctance to rely on Arab parties.