New Poll Shows Doubling of Undecided Voters in Israeli Haredi Sector

A new poll by Ascara, a firm specializing in public opinion research within the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) sector, reveals a significant increase in undecided voters, more than doubling from previous elections. While voters who have already decided their allegiance show little change, with United Torah Judaism maintaining its support and Shas seeing a slight decrease, the overall picture for Haredi parties is altered when including those who haven't decided.

The combined support for United Torah Judaism and Shas among all Haredi voters has dropped from 71.5% in the previous election cycle (Tashpa"b) to 63.8% in the current cycle. This decline is primarily attributed to Shas, which fell from 25.2% to 19.9%, while United Torah Judaism remained relatively stable. The key factor driving this shift is not a move to other parties, but a sharp rise in undecided voters, which more than doubled from 5.9% to 13.2%.

This increase in indecision is concentrated among Sephardic voters and former Shas supporters. The poll suggests that these votes are not clearly transferring to another party but are remaining with voters who have yet to make a decision. The proportion of those not intending to vote remains around 10%, and support for non-Haredi parties has stayed consistent.

Ascara estimates that the combined decrease in strength for United Torah Judaism and Shas represents approximately one Knesset seat, with Shas bearing the brunt of this loss. However, the firm emphasizes that this is a snapshot and the final outcome could change if undecided voters, particularly former Shas supporters, return to the party before election day, as has happened in the past.

Among the undecided voters surveyed in September, about half expressed no leaning towards any party. Of those who did indicate a preference, a third leaned towards United Torah Judaism, a small minority towards Shas, and about half towards non-Haredi parties, suggesting a broader debate about voting for Haredi parties at all, or abstaining.

New Haredi parties are polling poorly, collectively garnering around 2% of the Haredi vote, far below the electoral threshold. Ascara concludes that the current situation reflects a "hesitation" rather than a "detachment" from Haredi parties, with the central question being whether undecided voters will ultimately return to the fold.