Sweden Election Tight Race: Opposition Leads by One Seat, Far-Right May Join Government

Sweden's parliamentary elections have resulted in an extremely close race, with the opposition bloc led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson holding a narrow lead of 176 seats to the governing bloc's 173, after approximately 95% of ballots were counted. Initial projections from Swedish public television SVT showed a one-seat advantage for the opposition, a stark contrast to earlier exit polls that predicted a more comfortable win for the center-left. The SVT model combines real-time results with historical data and demographic information, and has been subject to change as more votes are tallied.

The close outcome raises significant questions about the potential entry of the far-right Sweden Democrats into the government for the first time. While the party, which has roots in far-right and neo-Nazi movements, has been a crucial parliamentary supporter for the current government since 2022, it has not held ministerial positions. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson had previously indicated a willingness to include the Sweden Democrats in his cabinet if his bloc won, a shift from his earlier stance.

Andersson has made the prospect of the Sweden Democrats joining the government a central theme of her campaign, framing the election as a choice between a government led by her or one including the far-right. However, the current projections suggest a potential setback for the Sweden Democrats, showing a decline in their support and losing their position as the second-largest party to Kristersson's Moderates.

Regardless of the final outcome, forming a government is expected to be challenging. If Andersson's bloc wins, the narrow one-seat majority could necessitate complex negotiations among her Social Democrats and their potential coalition partners, the Left Party, Greens, and Centre Party, who have significant policy differences. If Kristersson's bloc prevails, the path to a coalition is clearer, but the Sweden Democrats' transition from external support to full government participation would be a major political shift.

The election's implications for Israel are also noted, with a right-wing victory, particularly one including the Sweden Democrats, seen as potentially more favorable. The Sweden Democrats are considered more pro-Israel than other major Swedish parties, supporting Israel's right to self-defense and opposing recognition of a Palestinian state. However, even the current Kristersson government has faced criticism from Israel for its policies on settlements and its support for Palestinian issues within the EU. An Andersson-led government is expected to adopt a more critical stance towards Israel, potentially increasing pressure within the European Union.