Professor Arnon Sofer, Geopolitical Strategist, Dies at 90
Professor Arnon Sofer, a prominent geographer, environmental studies scholar, and demographer, passed away at the age of 90. Sofer, a co-founder of the University of Haifa and head of its Haykin Chair for Geostrategy, was known for his prescient analyses of Israel's demographic, social, and geopolitical challenges. He had warned of impending national collapse due to accumulating problems, even before the outbreak of the "Swords of Iron" war in October 2023.
In conversations held in September 2023 and July 2024, Sofer expressed deep concern about Israel's future, predicting it would struggle to withstand its mounting issues. He had accurately foreseen many demographic and social trends decades in advance, including the rise of the ultra-Orthodox population, the weakening of the middle class, and the decline of the education system. His concept of "Tel Aviv State" highlighted the dangers of over-centralization and the neglect of the periphery, which he viewed as a strategic threat.
Sofer distinguished between geopolitical and messianic settlement, advocating for population dispersal in the Galilee and Negev while viewing settlements in Judea and Samaria as an existential risk. He supported disengagement from Gaza, believing it would prevent significant future casualties, and attributed the October 7th failures to security lapses rather than the withdrawal itself. He also cautioned against the dangers of messianic thinking and the pursuit of all territories, warning it could lead to the end of the Zionist enterprise.
Despite suffering from Parkinson's disease in his later years, Sofer maintained a sharp intellect and a deep commitment to Israel's strength. He advocated for policies such as family planning through reduced child benefits, fixed borders based on demographic considerations, and limiting the foreign resident population. While critical of the settlement movement, he also called for full civil rights for Arab citizens of Israel and a welcoming policy towards minorities, seeing mixed cities like Haifa as a model for coexistence.
Sofer's strategic vision extended beyond Israel's borders. He downplayed the immediate threat of a nuclear Iran, arguing that responsible nations would not use weapons of mass destruction. However, he was deeply concerned about environmental issues, water scarcity, agriculture, and global warming, presenting maps that illustrated the escalating desertification in the Middle East and its potential to exacerbate regional poverty and security problems. He remained a passionate patriot and Zionist, hopeful for Israel's future despite his often stark warnings.
