Israel and US Plan to Foster Iran Regime Change
Israel and the United States have developed a joint strategy aimed at creating conditions for regime change in Iran, according to Israeli security officials. This plan emerged following intelligence reports in January and February detailing the Iranian regime's brutal crackdown on internal protests, including widespread arrests and disappearances. While not initially planned, the severity of the regime's actions, coupled with concerns over Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile development, prompted a firm stance from Israel's security establishment that "the moment for another operation will come, it is inevitable."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Donald Trump at the White House, accompanied by top security officials, to solidify cooperation and approve a joint strategic plan. The objective is not a direct promise to overthrow the regime, but rather to "create the conditions for regime change." The Israeli delegation presented three pillars for this strategy: fostering an alternative leadership, implementing targeted influence campaigns, and conducting ground operations, recognizing that air strikes alone cannot topple a government.
Six months after a significant operation, Israeli security sources believe the Iranian regime is on a path to disintegration, though the process could take months or years. Severe economic sanctions and international cooperation are seen as key accelerators. The regime is struggling to contain internal unrest, high unemployment, and a near-complete freeze in oil exports, leading to a worsening economic situation. Iranian President Rouhani has publicly advocated for a diplomatic agreement amidst growing internal tension.
Militarily, intelligence achievements have reportedly halted Iran's uranium enrichment and the transfer of centrifuges, with much of the infrastructure remaining hidden. A senior security official stated that Iran's defense industry has been "destroyed," and key facilities like "Mount Machpelah" remain unchanged due to a lack of effective aerial munitions. The situation is described as a "clock game," with the US measuring progress by fuel prices and Trump's patience, while Iran's internal clock is ticking due to escalating economic hardship.
Israel's security establishment is reportedly concerned about a potential Iranian surprise attack aimed at breaking the economic stranglehold and forcing localized negotiations. The clear Israeli message conveyed is that any Iranian attack on Israel would result in an irreversible response, targeting critical national infrastructure. Iran, meanwhile, fears a "third surprise" and is experiencing significant tension at the highest levels.
