US Revisits Regime Change in Iran Amid Rising Economic and Military Pressure
In the United States, there is a growing consensus that Iran cannot be restrained through negotiations alone, prompting renewed discussions in Washington about regime change in Tehran, according to a Financial Times report. Political analyst Gideon Rachman noted that after diplomatic efforts to end the conflict failed, officials in the Trump administration are reconsidering a "Plan A" strategy involving increased economic pressure, renewed oil export sanctions, identifying potential collaborators within the Iranian regime, and possibly encouraging internal uprisings, including arming Kurdish forces.
A key element of this strategy is intensifying economic sanctions to choke off most of Iran's oil revenue, aiming to trigger a severe economic crisis within months. Concurrently, the US is searching for insiders willing to cooperate with the US and Israel. Unusually, this effort included an unsuccessful Israeli attempt to establish contact with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The report also highlights significant challenges in reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force, despite heavy US strikes on Iranian coastal targets. Two Greek tankers from the Dynacom shipping company were hit by Iranian missiles while attempting to transit the strait via the Omani route, demonstrating that even US air cover does not currently guarantee ship safety. Former British Navy commander Tom Sharp described the situation as an "impossible dilemma," stating the US cannot sufficiently reduce the threat to reopen the strait safely.
Energy consultant Amerita Sen said the attacks on the Dynacom vessels have changed the rules of engagement, noting that shipowners willing to take risks will still require strong assurances of peace to return. Another shipping industry source summarized the problem by saying Iran only needs to hit one tanker to deter all others. Former US Fifth Fleet commander Kevin Dungan explained that Iran does not need to close the strait entirely to achieve its goals; intermittent attacks on soft targets keep insurance costs high and deter shipping.
Former US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery estimated that weeks of intense strikes would be necessary to sufficiently degrade Iran's missile and drone capabilities. Even if successful, reopening the strait would take time and likely require naval escorts for commercial vessels. Montgomery added that this timeline would likely exceed President Trump's patience.
