Iran's Regional Network Adapts, Posing Future Threats to Israel
Despite significant Israeli and U.S. efforts to dismantle Iran's regional network of allied militant groups, the "Iranian axis" has largely survived and is adapting to a new operational model, according to an analysis by Shahar Kleiman published by JNS. While individual components have been weakened, they retain the capacity to open new fronts against Israel in the event of renewed direct confrontation with Tehran.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, though having lost leadership like Hassan Nasrallah and suffering damage to its missile capabilities and command structure, has not been disarmed. The organization continues to utilize drones and maintain ties with Iran, with political allies like the Amal movement opposing the transfer of all weapons to state control. The political climate in Lebanon has shifted, with some officials favoring state control of weaponry, but Hezbollah remains armed and capable of renewed combat.
Houthi forces in Yemen have also proven resilient. Despite Israeli strikes on their infrastructure and leadership, they maintain control over significant parts of Yemen and are demonstrating increased ambition. Recent actions include declaring a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and advancing towards strategically important areas of the Red Sea, such as Moha, which offers advantages near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This continued Houthi strength poses a long-range threat to Israel, including missile and drone attacks and disruption of Red Sea shipping.
In Iraq, U.S. pressure and strikes have not led to the disarmament of Iran-backed Shiite militias. These groups link disarmament to a full U.S. troop withdrawal, and Baghdad fears they could re-engage in conflict if U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, potentially turning Iraq into a platform for attacks and widening regional war.
Iran is also attempting to re-establish influence in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, which weakened its operational freedom. While Iranian infrastructure has not disappeared, cells and former intelligence personnel linked to Tehran are still being identified. Recent arrests in Lebanon of individuals suspected of planning attacks against the new Syrian government, with some reportedly trained by Hezbollah, suggest Iran is trying to maintain a covert presence and exploit future instability.
Within the Palestinian arena, a rift has emerged between Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). A PIJ representative publicly criticized Hamas's unilateral decision to launch the October 7, 2023 attack, calling it a "reckless adventure" that led to significant destruction and the ruin of Hamas infrastructure. While PIJ participated in the attack and subsequent conflict, this criticism highlights growing inter-group competition, with Hamas's weakening potentially creating space for other Iran-aligned factions.
