UAE Warned Israel of Gaza Eruption, Not Netanyahu's Defense

Abu Dhabi is navigating a delicate balance between warning Israel and managing political risks, as debates over the expulsion of Gaza residents resurface in Jerusalem. A reported conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed has highlighted a significant trust deficit in information, according to journalist Jackie Hugi writing for the newspaper Maariv. The core issue is not the contact itself, but whether the UAE had alerted Israel to an impending escalation in the Palestinian territories, similar to prior warnings from Egypt.

Direct and daily contact between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi has been ongoing, including before the October 7th attacks. The UAE had reportedly cautioned Israel that its actions in East Jerusalem, pressure on Gaza's population, and the complex situation in the West Bank were creating a desperate predicament for Palestinians, with religious, military, social, and economic pressures threatening an explosion. This mirrors a warning from Egyptian intelligence three and a half years prior to the October 7th attacks, which Israeli authorities reportedly overlooked due to internal political conflicts.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated it "does not comment on media reports or speculation regarding conversations between leaders," which is interpreted as an acknowledgment of intelligence sharing without confirming specifics. This statement placed Abu Dhabi in an awkward position following a report by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruti Yuval. Confirming warnings about a planned Hamas attack could be seen in the Arab world as aiding Zionists in thwarting "resistance" plans, akin to Jordan's King Hussein warning Golda Meir in 1973. Conversely, a denial would benefit Netanyahu's election campaign, which Abu Dhabi is not interested in supporting.

Meanwhile, the idea of "voluntary emigration" for Gaza residents, promoted by Ofer Winter's new party "Amcha Yisrael," has re-entered Israeli political discourse. Winter stated, "Gaza residents want to leave, and we must help them." However, this "voluntary emigration" is seen as a euphemism for creating unbearable conditions to force an exodus. The lack of host countries, with Egypt firmly rejecting refugees and Jared Kushner reportedly shifting focus from expulsion to reconstruction, complicates any such plans. Expulsion would create lasting historical trauma and intergenerational hostility, with the IDF's willingness to carry out such orders uncertain.