Iran Rebuilding Missile Arsenal, Posing Renewed Threat to Israel and US
Iran is actively rebuilding its capacity to launch large-scale missile attacks against Israel and U.S. military installations in the Middle East, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, citing American and Middle Eastern officials. Despite previous strikes by the U.S. and Israel on its missile industry, Tehran has managed to preserve a significant portion of its arsenal, components, and protected underground infrastructure.
Intelligence indicates that Iran is reassembling ballistic missiles at several underground facilities, including the Khojir complex southeast of Tehran. While current production levels are lower than pre-war figures, Iran is manufacturing both liquid- and solid-fuel missiles, with a particular emphasis on solid-fuel systems due to their long shelf life and rapid deployment capabilities. Tehran is also developing new, hardened underground production sites to better withstand potential future airstrikes.
Even without fully restoring its manufacturing base, Iran possesses enough stockpiled components, such as missile bodies, warheads, and guidance systems, to assemble hundreds of additional ballistic missiles. Furthermore, estimates suggest that Iran retained approximately 70% of its pre-war ballistic and cruise missile inventory and mobile launchers, along with access to about 90% of its underground launch sites. This indicates that while strikes have degraded Iran's capabilities, they have not eliminated its ability to conduct large-scale missile volleys.
Adding to the threat, Iran's missile buildup is occurring as U.S. and allied stockpiles of crucial interceptor missiles are dwindling. Reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicate that U.S. Patriot missile stocks have fallen below 1,000 units and THAAD systems to around 250. Replenishing these defenses is a slow process, with estimates suggesting it could take three years or more to restore THAAD and Patriot inventories and about two years for naval interceptors like SM-3 and SM-6.
This situation creates a race between Iran's offensive missile production and the West's ability to replenish its missile defense systems. The Wall Street Journal highlights that a prolonged conflict could see Tehran launching missiles faster than the U.S. and its allies can replace their expensive interceptors, a key consequence of Iran's preserved missile industry.
