Arab Voters Seen as Netanyahu's Key Hope for 2026 Election Victory
As the candidate lists for the 2026 Knesset elections solidify, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a complex political landscape. He has not secured the prominent figures he sought, while factions like those led by Bezalel Smotrich and Ofer Winter are vying for the same voter base. Gadi Eisenkot's list presents potential challenges, and Avigdor Lieberman is positioning himself as a 'Likud B' alternative. Netanyahu's bloc appears to be in a precarious position, with a scenario where a significant drop in the Likud's support to 16-17 seats could allow both Smotrich and Winter to surpass them. Meanwhile, two smaller ultra-Orthodox parties, one called 'The Black Color' and another led by Moti Leitner representing working ultra-Orthodox individuals and including women, are expected to draw votes from the established ultra-Orthodox parties.
Within the opposition bloc, Gadi Eisenkot bears significant responsibility for minimizing risks. The article suggests that votes potentially lost by the Zehlikha-Handel party could hinder the formation of a stable government post-election, questioning the viability of a technocratic government or parliament in Israel's context. Voters are described as needing to undertake extensive research to understand party platforms and candidate ideologies.
Arab parties' electoral strategy is analyzed as consistently benefiting the Jewish parties in the minority within coalitions. In the 2022 elections, the Balad party running independently and 'wasting' votes inadvertently boosted Netanyahu's bloc. However, in the current landscape, where the opposition appears to have a majority, each additional seat gained by Arab parties increases the size of the bloc in the Knesset that would not join a potential government. If Balad runs within the Joint List and avoids 'wasting' votes, it could inadvertently aid Netanyahu's bloc by consolidating Arab votes that might otherwise be dispersed. The article concludes that Netanyahu's greatest hope for victory in the 2026 elections lies in high Arab voter turnout.
