Iran-Backed Houthis Consolidate Control Over Key Red Sea Chokepoint

The Houthi movement in Yemen has achieved a significant strategic advantage by consolidating control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a vital maritime passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. This development, which experts attribute to Iranian coordination, is raising alarms in Israel and the West about a potential shift in the regional balance of power and a weakening of deterrence.

The Houthis' enhanced grip on the strait, particularly with control over Perim Island and coastal areas like Dhubab and Al Mocha, expands their threat capabilities beyond long-range missiles and drones to include artillery and shorter-range weapons. This poses a substantial risk to global shipping, as approximately 10% of the world's maritime trade passes through Bab el-Mandeb, potentially impacting supply chains, energy movements, and insurance and transportation costs.

According to analyst Yoni Ben Menachem, the situation is not solely the Houthis' or Iran's doing. He points to Saudi Arabia's past strategy of economic incentives to contain the Houthis while focusing on weakening allies in southern Yemen, a strategy he believes has failed. Ben Menachem suggests the Houthis have established their own "deterrence equation" with the United States, exploiting Washington's reluctance to engage in another protracted Middle East conflict.

Ben Menachem argues that Iran and its allies perceive the current moment as an opportunity to reshape the strategic map, not just withstand regional pressure. He cautions against interpreting a potential ceasefire as a sign of weakness, emphasizing that the Houthis face internal economic and governance challenges. He stresses that military pressure alone is insufficient, advocating for a combined approach of economic pressure, bolstering anti-Houthi forces, disrupting Iranian supply lines, improving intelligence, and clearly defining the consequences for attacking international shipping.

A concerning scenario, Ben Menachem warns, is Saudi Arabia opting for a swift ceasefire by accepting the lifting of restrictions on the Houthis in exchange for quiet. This, he believes, would teach the Houthis and Iran that escalation is profitable. He also highlights the potential for Houthi networks to expand into Iraq and possibly Jordan, and the need to monitor connections with Al-Shabaab. The core question, he concludes, is whether the U.S. and its allies are prepared to actively defend freedom of navigation or accept a reality where an Iran-backed force can unilaterally alter regional strategic rules.