Trump Allies Express Frustration With Netanyahu, Cite Eroding Trust

The fourth MEAD conference, focused on security cooperation, convened in Washington this week amidst significant regional uncertainty and ahead of crucial elections in both Israel and the US. Representatives from 24 nations, including the US, Israel, and several Middle Eastern countries without diplomatic ties to Israel, attended the event, the largest to date. The conference, operating under "Chatham House Rules" to encourage frank discussion, has become a key platform for dialogue between Washington, Jerusalem, and regional capitals on security, intelligence, technology, business, energy, and governance. Special attention was given to energy security and maritime trade routes, which have become critical security concerns.

Discussions featured candid, though confidential, statements from participants, including former Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. (res.) Tomer Bar. Anonymous sources revealed significant concerns about Israel's standing in the US political landscape. A former senior Biden administration official suggested that both Democrats and younger Republicans are distancing themselves from Israel, and American Jews are increasingly alienated, attributing this to the current Israeli government "destroying Israel's value" in American eyes. This official also posited that a different Israeli prime minister, even less known, could "reset" relations with the US.

Sources close to former President Donald Trump expressed "extreme disappointment" with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stating that trust has eroded over issues concerning Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. These sources indicated growing impatience with Netanyahu, noting the US administration's lack of condemnation of UK sanctions against Israel as an example. They also cited dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's handling of Trump's 20-point plan to end the Gaza war, alleging Netanyahu is attempting to derail it. Regarding Trump's potential pardon of Netanyahu, these sources claimed it stems from personal solidarity, not a quid pro quo.

Discussions on Gaza indicated improvements, with increased humanitarian aid, reduced casualties, and declining Hamas popularity. Plans include a Palestinian technocratic commission for governance, an international oversight body, and the recruitment of 10,000-12,000 Palestinian police. However, accusations were leveled against Israel for allegedly obstructing the entry of commission members and police training. Conversely, criticism was also directed at the international community for condemning Israel while refusing to accept students or refugees from Gaza.

Regarding Iran, participants agreed the regime is significantly weakened economically and faces widespread internal opposition, though a collapse is not imminent and could take years. Concerns were raised about Supreme Leader Khamenei surrounding himself with hardliners. A "memorandum of understanding" that could have provided Iran with billions of dollars and advanced its nuclear program was reportedly rejected by Iranian hardliners, which, according to one source, prompted Trump to change his stance. Middle Eastern representatives agreed the current Iranian regime must be removed, but acknowledged it would require patience. A retaliatory strike on Iranian oil infrastructure was suggested as a potential catalyst for regime collapse if Iran attacks Israel.

Optimism was tempered regarding Lebanon, with Hezbollah seen as weakened but the Lebanese government unable to confront it. Syria's situation showed positive trends, though still imperfect. Some in Israel view President Bashar al-Assad as pragmatic and suggest cautious engagement, while others label him a "terrorist in a suit." Normalization with Syria was deemed less realistic. Gulf states share concerns about Iran, and the Muslim Brotherhood was criticized as a greater danger than Iran due to its perceived lack of dialogue. Control over strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb was identified as a global issue, with discussions on US strategies to reduce reliance on these routes.

Abraham Accords expansion prospects were viewed skeptically, though Israel-Saudi relations were deemed better than perceived. Behind-the-scenes processes are ongoing, potentially yielding results post-election. Military and intelligence cooperation between Israel and the US was described as unprecedented. Internally, Israel faces challenges with the ultra-Orthodox conscription law and judicial reform, termed "ticking time bombs." A lack of public pressure to withdraw from territories was noted as a potential opportunity for regional diplomatic shifts. China's role was discussed, with reports of Beijing ceasing Iranian oil purchases and the US enforcing secondary sanctions against entities aiding Iran.