Israel Sets Red Line on Iran's Missile Activity

Israel has signaled that while it is not rushing into a new conflict with Tehran, Iran's margin for error is extremely narrow. An Israeli official stated that a missile deviating even slightly and falling within Israel would be grounds for war, according to Israel Hayom. This warning comes amid evidence of Iran resuming ballistic missile production, a development also noted by U.S. President Trump.

Despite these advancements, Israel is indicating it will not initiate an attack unless Iran directly strikes Israeli territory. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz have both stated this week that they would not hesitate to strike Iran if Israel is attacked, citing the direct threat to energy and infrastructure facilities.

Concurrently, Jerusalem and Washington are monitoring Iran's internal situation. Senior Israeli and American officials believe that sanctions and economic pressure are creating unprecedented internal strain in Iran, potentially leading to popular unrest against the regime. One American official noted in a closed conversation that Iranian negotiators are seeking financial relief rather than an end to missile strikes. The economic pressure, he added, affects not only Iranian citizens but also Iran's regional proxies who are struggling to survive.

This hardship is reportedly deepening within the government itself, with the Iranian president allegedly attempting to resign multiple times and the regime struggling to pay military officials, leading to increasing isolation. Israel is closely observing this internal erosion, believing continued pressure could foster processes leading to the regime's downfall from within. However, as long as Iran refrains from direct attacks, Israel is unlikely to act preemptively. A direct hit on Israeli soil from a stray Iranian missile, however, could drastically alter this calculus.