Mossad Assesses Iran's Regime Could Fall by Early 2027

The Israeli Mossad intelligence agency estimates that Iran's clerical regime could collapse as early as the first quarter of 2027, provided the United States maintains its pressure campaign without faltering. This assessment was presented at the MEAD conference in Washington, attended by officials from the U.S., Gulf states, and the Middle East, according to a report by Amit Segal.

This projection follows a previous estimate by former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, who suggested that effective sanctions could lead to the regime's downfall within a year. Following a six-month U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Mossad now believes continued American action could decisively impact Iran by early next year. A senior U.S. official present at the conference described the situation as leading to a "new Middle East."

The conference reportedly characterized the Islamic Republic's condition as significantly worse than at the time of the interim agreement. Despite this, the consensus is that the confrontation with Iran is far from over and is expected to be prolonged. Previously, there was a broad agreement that Iran had emerged stronger from recent conflicts, particularly following perceived concessions by then-U.S. President Donald Trump regarding war aims. However, this view is now largely dismissed, with a senior White House official questioning the strength of a leadership whose supreme leader missed his brother's funeral and whose brother wore a mask.

During the conference, a very senior Israeli official also revealed details about the elimination of Iranian officials. He explained that a planned meeting of officers was initially set for Saturday at 9:30 AM. However, intelligence indicated another meeting of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence was scheduled for 8:30 AM and would last an hour. To maintain the element of surprise, both meetings needed to be attacked simultaneously. Based on an assessment that the intelligence officers would extend their session, the strike was rescheduled for 9:40 AM. The officers did indeed prolong their meeting, and the attack was executed during the briefing.