US Midterms Could Reshape American Aid and Pressure on Israel
The Israeli government is closely monitoring the US midterm elections, fearing that a Republican loss of congressional control could usher in a new era in relations with Washington, potentially involving conditions on military aid and increased political pressure. Warnings from within the Republican coalition emerged during the annual summit of the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas, where its chairman, Norm Coleman, cautioned that a Democratic victory in either chamber of Congress would weaken efforts to bolster the US-Israel alliance and could lead to new conditions on military aid. He stated the election outcome would determine whether the US views Israel as a strategic ally or a nuisance.
This concern is amplified by a broad lobbying campaign, as reported by the Financial Times. Coleman's remarks are part of a push by pro-Israel groups, including Jewish activists, evangelical leaders, and prominent Republicans, aimed at mobilizing support for Republican candidates. This campaign reflects anxieties that the election results could destabilize the historic relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv.
Recent years have seen a notable shift in American public opinion, particularly following the Gaza war. Political analyst Ian Lustick noted that while bipartisan support for the US-Israel relationship was once widespread, criticism of Israeli policies has grown. A June Pew Research Center poll indicated that 62% of Americans hold a negative view of the Israeli government, though 51% of Republicans still maintain a positive stance. In contrast, support within the Democratic Party has declined significantly, from 35% in 2022 to 16% currently.
Amidst declining public support and Democratic criticism, the Israeli government is increasingly relying on the Republican Party, despite opposition from prominent Democratic Jewish figures like Chuck Schumer, Bernie Sanders, and Jon Ossoff. Israeli Ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, told the Financial Times that the origin of critics is irrelevant, suggesting that criticism is now driven by political stances rather than personal backgrounds. Doubts about the relationship have even surfaced within the Republican base. US Senator J.D. Vance attempted to reassure supporters at the Republican Jewish Coalition summit, affirming the relationship's benefit to America, but his avoidance of condemning figures like Tucker Carlson, who criticizes US support for Israel, has fueled further concerns.
Adding to the complexity are tensions between former President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Axios reported Trump yelling at Netanyahu, "Everyone hates you now," after previously stating Israel's survival depended on US support. Israeli officials and Republicans emphasize the need for greater efforts to clarify the relationship's importance. Former Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer remarked, "We Jews have a unique ability to see the glass as half empty." Israel has expanded its political lobbying, investing heavily in public support campaigns, including among American evangelicals, and hiring former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale for over $31 million to produce pro-Israel advertisements. The upcoming midterm elections appear to be a pivotal moment for the Washington-Tel Aviv relationship, where shifts in public and political sentiment intersect with calculations related to war and the economy.
