World attention is on Switzerland, where an agreement between the United States and Iran is expected to be signed on Friday and bring the war in the Middle East to an end. Travel experts say the biggest tourism winner is likely to be Dubai, whose visitor numbers have fallen sharply since the conflict began.
Paul Charles, chief executive of the travel consultancy The PC Agency, told the Daily Mail that he always expected a quick recovery once the fighting stopped. “I’m sure that once the agreement is signed in Switzerland on Friday, we’ll see a wave of marketing offers from airlines and hotels encouraging visitors to return,” he said. He added that there could be “amazing deals” because many airlines are already returning to full flight schedules. Captain Emma Henderson, a pilot and aviation expert, said, “This is definitely good news for the aviation and tourism industry. Dubai and the region around it will want to open the door to tourists as quickly as possible.”
At the start of the war, many tourists were stranded in Dubai after the city became a target for drone attacks. Travelers posted videos of drones and debris hitting luxury hotels. Dubai International Airport was temporarily shut, thousands of flights were grounded, and some countries still advise against nonessential travel to the United Arab Emirates.
Henderson said she expects long queues of people eager to return once restrictions are lifted, but not immediately. Sarah Rodriguez of Avanti Travel Insurance warned that as long as restrictions remain, travelers “will not be protected by their travel insurance,” and urged people to wait for updates before booking trips. Tim Riley, chief executive of True Traveller and chair of the UK Travel Insurance Association, said a durable signed deal could change the picture in the UAE and across the wider Middle East.
The effect on prices, however, is expected to take longer. Henderson said oil prices have fallen, but the main issue was supply, and the key question is how long refineries will take to resume processing crude and how much damage was done to regional refineries and oil wells. Riley said consumers should not expect prices to fall as quickly as they rose in March, though by autumn much of the economic disruption could be behind them.
