US Intelligence Warns Iran May Consider Direct Attack on Israel

U.S. intelligence reports indicate that Iran is gaining confidence in its military capabilities and is considering expanding its attacks in the Middle East to increase pressure on the United States, according to a "New York Times" report. An Israeli official familiar with the situation confirmed the basis for these American assessments, suggesting that Iran's internal difficulties and a desire to return to negotiations with Washington could be motives for escalation. Tehran understands that time is not on their side, and that post-U.S. midterm elections, their leverage over President Trump may weaken.

There is a growing possibility that Iran, which has so far avoided directly attacking Israel during the current conflict phase, may change its policy. Alternatively, Iran might first use its regional proxies to wear down Israel's defenses and test its response without direct involvement. Recent Iranian attacks in Jordan, including near Aqaba, are seen in Israel as a potential message to Jerusalem, signaling Iran's capability to extend attacks toward Israel. This is compounded by tensions in Lebanon and concerns that Hezbollah may intensify attacks against IDF forces.

U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Iran is preparing for continued conflict for several more months, at least until the U.S. midterm elections in November. After approximately six months of fighting, Tehran has a clearer picture of its military capabilities and limitations, which could complicate reaching a peace agreement. Jerusalem has also conveyed strong messages to Tehran, with Defense Minister Israel Katz warning that an Iranian attack on Israel would remove Israeli limitations on its response. Katz stated that the IDF could then target national, military, and civilian infrastructure in Iran, including energy facilities.

Katz also commented on Iran's internal situation, noting signs of severe economic pressure and regime fears of internal unrest. Israel is concerned that this pressure might push Tehran toward extreme actions to alter the balance of power and strengthen its negotiating position. Israeli security forces are preparing for various scenarios, including a direct Iranian attack, proxy actions against Israel, or escalation in other Middle Eastern arenas. The assessment in Israel is that public warnings are also intended to make it clear to Tehran in advance that expanding the conflict toward Israel will result in a significant response.