Jordan Caught in Middle of Iran-US Tensions, Faces Iranian Targeting

Jordan finds itself in a highly sensitive position amid escalating regional tensions, becoming a target of repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks. The kingdom is attempting to maintain its close security alliance with the United States while simultaneously avoiding direct confrontation with Tehran. Despite facing numerous Iranian attacks in recent months and days, Jordan has largely opted for a cautious political discourse and refrained from military responses, fearing an expansion of the conflict that could turn its territory into a battlefield.

This policy is linked to Jordan's strong security and strategic relationship with the U.S., significantly bolstered since King Abdullah II's ascension in 1999. An Israeli media report indicates that a 2021 security cooperation agreement grants U.S. forces access to approximately 12 military facilities across Jordan. These sites, including the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, have become crucial logistical hubs for U.S. operations, providing strategic depth in the region but also making Jordan vulnerable to Iranian targeting. Experts suggest Iranian attacks on Jordan could be aimed not only at U.S. forces but also at the kingdom's sovereignty and its leadership.

While Jordan views its alliance with the U.S. as a cornerstone of its security, the presence of American military assets makes it a potential target for Iran. The report estimates around 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the Middle East, with the exact number in Jordan undisclosed. Additionally, U.S. grants reportedly constitute a significant portion of Jordan's annual budget, approximately $1.47 billion. The U.S. has also relocated military personnel and equipment from Iraq to Jordan as part of a strategy to distance forces from Iranian missile range.

The Jordanian leadership is navigating a complex equation: balancing its security alliance with the U.S. against the risk of escalating Iranian attacks. The kingdom faces internal economic and political challenges, making a wider regional war particularly perilous. Beyond direct military threats, concerns also include Iranian support for militias in Iraq and Palestinian factions, as well as drug and arms smuggling networks operating through Syria, which are seen as direct threats to Jordan's stability.

Recently, Jordan's tone has shifted. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi explicitly stated that Iran is attacking Jordan and other regional nations, noting these attacks began shortly after the outbreak of the current war, despite Jordan's efforts to prevent its escalation. Safadi affirmed Jordan's right to self-defense and its sovereign right to take necessary measures to protect its security and citizens, while also highlighting the U.S. military presence as part of a bilateral security agreement. He also indicated Jordan seeks good relations with Iran but requires Tehran to address the root causes of tension, including alleged support for smuggling and destabilization efforts.

Iran responded swiftly, with Foreign Minister Javad Zarif questioning Jordan's stance and accusing the U.S. of using regional airspace and territory for its attacks. On September 2nd, the Jordanian army announced its air defenses intercepted 13 ballistic missiles that entered its airspace, downing ten while three fell in unpopulated areas. Earlier, on August 31st, eight other missiles were intercepted and destroyed. Despite these incidents, Jordan's strategy appears to be absorbing strikes and maintaining restraint, as the cost of direct confrontation is deemed potentially far greater than the cost of continued self-control.