Iran May Not Retaliate for Hezbollah Site Destruction, Analysts Say
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Critical Threats Project (CTP) assessed on September 4 that Iran is unlikely to launch a significant retaliatory strike against Israel following the Israeli military's destruction of a major Hezbollah underground facility in southern Lebanon. The IDF announced on September 3 that it had cleared tunnels beneath the Al-Tahir mountain ridge, a key Hezbollah stronghold overlooking the Litani River and the Hula Valley. Hezbollah and Iran have downplayed the loss, with Iranian media and Hezbollah officials claiming Israel exaggerated the site's military significance for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's election campaign. Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chairman of Hezbollah's political council, echoed this sentiment, stating the site's importance was inflated for political purposes.
Hezbollah had reportedly used the Al-Tahir ridge for approximately 20 years to target IDF forces and Israeli communities. Analysts identified three potential Iranian responses: a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel, a limited symbolic strike, or no attack at all. Given the rhetoric from Tehran and Beirut, analysts believe the latter is most probable. Notably, neither Iranian military nor intelligence officials have issued threats against Israel. This contrasts with Iran's June response to an Israeli drone strike on a Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut, which resulted in Iranian missile launches targeting Israel.
Analysts also noted recent Iranian drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, the UAE, and Kuwait on September 3 and 4. While these attacks are part of a broader campaign to pressure the U.S. to end the war, their connection to the Hezbollah site's destruction is unconfirmed. Iran aims to leverage rising oil prices to increase domestic pressure on the U.S. administration, though oil prices have remained below $100 per barrel. Iran is currently facing a severe financial crisis, with dwindling foreign reserves and difficulties financing allies like Hezbollah due to U.S. sanctions and port blockades.
