Iran Retains Missile Arsenal, Aims for Prolonged Conflict With US
U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran has maintained sufficient capabilities to continue its conflict with the United States, focusing on a protracted confrontation. Six months into the hostilities, Tehran still possesses a significant stockpile of missiles and drones, and American intelligence believes Iran considers large-scale attacks feasible. Iran's leadership reportedly believes it has gauged the limits of U.S. military pressure and preserved enough strength for a prolonged war.
This assessment influences Iran's negotiating stance, as Tehran sees no compelling reason to agree to a deal and may anticipate hostilities continuing until the U.S. midterm elections. The strategy appears to be that mounting costs, war expenses, and energy price pressures will gradually weaken the Trump administration. A key Iranian asset remains the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) preserved capabilities.
Earlier U.S. assessments indicated that after initial intense strikes, Iran retained approximately 70% of its pre-war missile reserves and a similar percentage of mobile launchers. Furthermore, about 90% of underground missile sites were reportedly restored to full or partial operational status. This suggests the IRGC can launch new waves of combined ballistic missile and drone attacks, threatening Israel, U.S. military installations in the Middle East, and other U.S. troop locations.
Despite these capabilities, Iran's forces are not fully restored. U.S. and Israeli strikes damaged some launchers, surveillance systems, air defenses, and infrastructure. Recent reports also suggest issues with some long-range missiles, with a high failure rate noted in a recent attack. However, these limitations are seen as affecting the scale of individual operations rather than eliminating Iran's capacity for further strikes.
The Strait of Hormuz remains another pressure point. The IRGC is working to repair coastal radars and other maritime control systems damaged by U.S. strikes. Although tanker traffic through the strait has increased recently, Iran continues to view it as a primary lever against the U.S. and global energy markets. Tehran's strategy now appears to be one of attrition, aiming to raise the cost of the war through its missile arsenal, periodic attacks, threats to U.S. bases, and pressure on shipping, rather than seeking a decisive military victory.
Internal U.S. assessments vary. While some U.S. intelligence previously characterized Iran's military potential as severely weakened, particularly after leadership losses and infrastructure strikes, even these reports acknowledged continued attacks on U.S. and allied targets by Iran and its proxies.
