US Prepares for Prolonged and Risky Confrontation with Iran Over Strait of Hormuz

The White House is bracing for a potentially extended and dangerous confrontation with Iran centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy route, according to a report by Axios on July 9, 2026. The conflict, which began with US strikes aimed at degrading Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program remnants, has escalated into open hostilities focused on this strategic maritime passage. A US official indicated the duration of the escalation could range from days to weeks or months, depending on whether Iran continues attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. "We are going to give them a small slap so they understand we are not playing," the official said.

The US recently launched a second round of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on infrastructure targets inside Iran for the first time in months. Iran responded with attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while reaffirming its determination to control the strait. Shortly after, President Donald Trump signaled US openness to de-escalation, mentioning that Iranian officials had recently contacted the US expressing interest in a deal, though details and Iranian confirmation remain unclear. Trump expressed skepticism about Iran's reliability, calling them "pretty crazy."

The Strait of Hormuz issue was a key part of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which required Iran to allow safe passage of ships. However, conflicting interpretations of the agreement, including Iranian accusations that the US violated it by routing ships near Omani waters without Tehran's approval, have undermined the deal. US officials believe they have room to escalate because hundreds of oil tankers have recently passed through the strait, reducing fears of an immediate oil price spike.

Behind the scenes, US sources attribute the current escalation to frustration among hardliners within Iran's divided leadership, who feel the memorandum failed to deliver tangible benefits. Despite US sanctions exemptions, Iran has struggled to sell oil due to financial institutions' reluctance and frozen Iranian funds remaining inaccessible because Iran has not met nuclear-related conditions. Additionally, a US-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon has rendered the Lebanese part of the memorandum unnecessary. "Some in the Iranian leadership were unhappy with all these things," the US source said. "They started shooting, and we decided it was time to hit back hard. It's a process. We have patience. If we don't get the deal we want, we won't make it."