Iran May Open New Front Against Israel Via Hezbollah

Iran is currently not seeking to broaden the conflict, but a prolonged confrontation could push it to open a new front against Israel, potentially through Hezbollah, according to Raz Zimet, head of the Iran and Shia Axis program at the Institute for National Security Studies. Zimet stated on 103FM that while Tehran is not currently interested in expanding the war, Hezbollah could become a tool of pressure if Iran's current strategy proves ineffective. He believes Iran is attempting to increase pressure on the United States and its regional allies, with consequences already felt in Lebanon.

While Zimet assesses that Hezbollah's direct involvement is unlikely to be Tehran's next step, the probability of such a scenario would rise if the current unstable situation persists and Iran's leadership decides further escalation is necessary. He noted that Iran's ability to influence Hezbollah's actions is significantly greater now than in the past. Despite this, Zimet believes expanding the conflict's geography does not currently align with Iran's interests.

Zimet also does not directly link a recent drone launch toward Israel to Tehran, attributing it instead to ongoing tensions around the Al-Taher mountain range. He separately highlighted recent exchanges of strikes between Iran and the U.S. in the Persian Gulf. Zimet observed that while President Trump previously focused on economic pressure and Iran had reduced activity against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, this situation may not last. He concluded that Iran is unlikely to voluntarily relinquish its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.