INSS Expert Warns Iran Conflict May Be Inevitable, Hezbollah Could Escalate Against Israel

Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), has identified a deliberate hardening of Tehran's stance and warned that another confrontation with the United States may be imminent. Speaking on August 18, 2026, he suggested that escalation could come through Hezbollah and Lebanon rather than a direct Israeli strike. Zimmt emphasized the need to prepare for a new conflict, noting that this time the U.S. might not initiate hostilities. He pointed to recent provocations, such as the seizure of an Emirati tanker, as examples of Iran’s strategy to break the current deadlock.

Zimmt also referenced reports from Lebanese media indicating Hezbollah is awaiting a green light from Tehran to intensify attacks against Israeli Defense Forces in southern Lebanon. He described Iranian proxies as key tools in Tehran’s approach. However, he clarified that the main escalation Iran is currently focusing on is against American forces enforcing the maritime blockade and their Gulf allies, primarily the United Arab Emirates.

This analysis comes amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing regional instability. The situation underscores the complex dynamics involving Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, the U.S., and Gulf states, with the potential for broader conflict if provocations continue or escalate further.