Lebanese Shiite Support for Hezbollah Erodes as War Costs Mount

A new study released Monday by the Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center says the renewed Israeli campaign against Hezbollah, which resumed on March 2, 2026, has deeply changed life in Lebanon, especially among the Shiite population. Since fighting restarted, more than 3,700 people have been killed in Lebanon, and over 1 million residents have been displaced. The heaviest damage has been concentrated in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s Dahieh district.

The report says the Shiite public is moving away from rhetoric of “resistance” and toward a focus on basic economic and social survival. It finds growing criticism of the continued war, declining confidence in Hezbollah’s ability to address the destruction and hardship it has caused, and rising support for political solutions and for strengthening the Lebanese state.

For the first time, the study says, public criticism is also being heard within the Shiite community against Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance.” Critics argue that the Shiite community is paying most of the price for regional agendas through destruction and crisis. Even so, the researchers say there is still no organized political alternative that could challenge Hezbollah’s dominance in the Shiite street.

The study concludes that, without a realistic path to reconstruction, the erosion of support could become a major political and social problem for Hezbollah. For now, it describes the trend as accumulated weakening rather than a collapse of the group’s support base.