Israeli-Supported Militias in Gaza Face Collapse Amid Hamas Pressure and Political Shifts

Less than a year after the failure of the GHF aid initiative in Gaza, which resulted in hundreds of Palestinian deaths and significant political and economic damage to Israel, the "Voluntary Migration Administration" created to realize Trump's Mediterranean Riviera vision has also dissolved. Ambitious projects aimed at Palestinian de-radicalization have been shelved, and the idea of establishing Israeli-supported militias and settlements in Gaza has largely been reduced to populist slogans disconnected from reality.

The militias, numbering only a few thousand members mostly affiliated with Fatah and former Palestinian Authority security forces, operate in Israeli-controlled areas of Gaza. The largest is the "Popular Forces" in eastern Rafah, alongside groups like the "Strike Force Against Terror" in Khan Yunis and the "Popular Army" in northern Gaza. Despite Israeli financial and logistical support, these militias have been accused of criminal activity, involvement in terror, and corruption, including looting humanitarian aid and smuggling.

Hamas has successfully pushed for the disarmament of these militias as part of a 15-point agreement, gaining support from peace councils and mediators by presenting evidence of the chaos they cause. Analysts note the militias suffer from social isolation and are on the brink of collapse, with ongoing efforts by tribal leaders and Hamas to convince members to defect. Hamas is also conducting military operations targeting militia leaders, with its "Raad" force leading intelligence gathering and assassination attempts.

Experts predict that as discussions progress on deploying a multinational force and rebuilding Gaza, the militias will lose their economic and operational power, especially once Israel withdraws beyond the "yellow line." Members are expected to be arrested or executed, and leaders may retreat with Israeli forces, possibly attempting to form terror cells within Palestinian territory.

The militias' creation was initially downplayed by Israeli political and security decision-makers, with Netanyahu dismissing concerns in 2025. The initiative reflected a failure to learn from history and a misunderstanding of Palestinian dynamics, where clans hold significant power but cannot be manipulated into a fragmented, politically passive entity. The ongoing miscalculations echo past strategic failures, including the uninvestigated causes of the October 7 attacks and flawed plans to destabilize Iran.

Dr. Milstein, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University's Dayan Center, warns against repeating the "Taliban model," where foreign-supported groups turn hostile, and stresses the need to prepare for absorbing militia members into Israel, similar to the South Lebanon Army after Israel's withdrawal. He also highlights the potential damage to Israel's regional image if it fails to protect its proxies and drags them into harmful illusions.