Netanyahu’s Strategy Risks Perpetuating Regional Conflicts Until Israeli Elections

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies plan to sustain ongoing conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank until the upcoming elections, according to analyst Ran Edelist. This approach, described as engaging in "false wars," aims to maintain a state of security tension that could influence voter sentiment but risks long-term damage to Israel’s democratic and liberal fabric.

Edelist argues that the demographic and political realities make it unlikely for Israel to remain a liberal democracy without significant changes. He suggests that the current strategy prioritizes the survival of certain sectors over the state’s democratic future, emphasizing the need for a strong federal unity government and an end to these perpetual conflicts. Israeli generals, including former Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, reportedly recognize these conflicts as manufactured tensions rather than existential threats.

The article highlights the internal political dynamics involving Netanyahu’s coalition, which includes elements of "Bibi-ism," Kahanism, and Haredi influences. These groups benefit from ongoing unrest, which perpetuates a cycle of violence and anxiety rather than decisive victories. The opposition has yet to effectively challenge this narrative, partly due to the patriotic respect for the military establishment.

Edelist calls for a canton-based state solution to preserve the liberal-democratic sector amid rising religious nationalism and societal divisions. He stresses the importance of separating religion from state affairs, a difficult task given the population’s strong religious spectrum. Netanyahu’s strategy also involves maintaining strategic ties with Turkey and other regional actors, aiming to solidify a geopolitical framework that includes potential negotiations with Hamas and discussions about the West Bank and Jerusalem.

The article concludes that Netanyahu’s plan to prolong these conflicts until the elections may secure short-term political gains but will leave behind a "scorched earth" scenario, undermining Israel’s democratic future and regional stability.