US Shifts Strategy on Iran, Preparing for Middle East Without a Nuclear Deal

The United States appears to be moving away from its long-held goal of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, instead preparing for a Middle East scenario without such a deal. For years, Washington believed it could pressure Tehran into better negotiation terms, but now it seems to accept that Iran is not negotiating to reach a stable agreement. Rather, Iran is using talks to buy time, maintain its capabilities, and emerge stronger for future confrontations. This shift implies that negotiations no longer serve as a means to prevent war but rather allow Iran to survive and strengthen.

Alongside military threats, the US quickly finalized a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, signaling a broader strategic recalibration. Iranian threats have also evolved; the Revolutionary Guards now threaten critical infrastructure in Gulf states, while Iranian-backed Houthi forces warn of expanding attacks on Red Sea shipping routes. This reflects a comprehensive Iranian strategy to counter economic and military pressure by targeting regional energy, trade, and financial flows.

The conflict is no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz but extends to the Bab al-Mandab strait, representing a battle over the future of regional stability. The key question is no longer whether President Donald Trump will order more strikes, but whether Washington has abandoned the premise that a final settlement with Iran is achievable. If so, the US may seek to rewrite the rules governing the Middle East, marking a significant turning point in regional policy and security dynamics.