Global Economy Shows Resilience Amid Regional Shocks, OECD Warns

The global economy is demonstrating relative resilience, with the OECD forecasting a slight upward revision to 2.9% growth in 2026. However, this figure masks a widening gap between markets, particularly impacting Middle Eastern nations and their trading partners. Geopolitical shocks in the region and rising energy and fertilizer prices are reshaping global growth.

Turkey's economy is facing significant challenges due to the war in Iran, with projected growth of only 2.7% this year, the lowest since 2020. Saudi Arabia is also experiencing a severe contraction of 1.8%, attributed to a sharp decline in oil production and exports. In contrast, India leads global growth at an impressive 7.8%, followed by Indonesia at 5.2% and China at 4.5%.

The OECD report, titled "Navigating Sequential Shocks," highlights that substantial investments in artificial intelligence are supporting leading economies and improving trade figures. The United States is expected to grow by 2.2% this year, while the Eurozone lags with only 1% growth.

While falling inflation and monetary easing are expected to provide some support to developing countries, including Turkey and Brazil, OECD economists caution that the outlook remains contingent on resolving the conflict in the Middle East. Prolonged supply disruptions, adverse weather, and refinery bottlenecks could reignite global inflation and stifle economic activity.