Sociologist Explains Why Israelis Lie to Pollsters and How to Combat It
Dr. Ido Lieberman, a sociologist specializing in Israeli society, has shed light on the phenomenon of respondents intentionally providing false answers in opinion polls. He confirms that this is a persistent and troubling issue for pollsters, with its intensity varying across election cycles. Lieberman clarifies that these are not instances of respondents being undecided or changing their minds, but rather conscious decisions to mislead.
Lieberman estimates that between five and ten percent of poll responses are fabricated. He attributes this behavior primarily to individuals who feel marginalized, anti-establishment, or negatively portrayed in public discourse. By lying to pollsters, they express protest against what they perceive as an amorphous establishment, including media corporations and polling firms. This perceived justification for deception leads respondents to view their actions not as outright falsehoods but as a form of 'Robin Hood'-esque 'bias' with a righteous motive.
While the percentage of "poll liars" is known, accurately compensating for these skewed results is challenging because the lies are not uniformly distributed across the political spectrum. Different groups have distinct motivations for lying, further complicating efforts to balance the data. Lieberman notes that this makes it difficult to assume that lies from one side of the political aisle will be offset by similar lies from the other.
Polling firms have developed strategies to address this challenge. One method involves tracking a consistent group of potential voters whose profiles are well-understood, though this approach has its own drawbacks. Another strategy is to specialize in surveying specific demographic groups, such as the national-religious, Haredi, or Arab communities. Lieberman suggests that respondents are less likely to lie to a firm that demonstrates an understanding of their community and treats them as individuals rather than as an anonymous or negatively perceived group.
The most effective, albeit costly, method is to ask questions from multiple perspectives, making it difficult for a potential liar to maintain a consistent false narrative. Furthermore, maintaining a database of respondents and removing those found to have lied encourages honesty, as reliable participants remain influential in shaping public opinion. Lieberman also points to the financial incentives for participants in some surveys, which discourage dishonest responses that could lead to exclusion from the database.
Addressing the myth that the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community specifically lies to pollsters, Lieberman recalls the 1999 election as a dramatic instance where pollsters underestimated the Shas party's support. He acknowledges that the Haredi community, like the Arab community, sometimes feels excluded from fair media representation and thus employs deceptive polling tactics. However, he emphasizes that this is not exclusive to the Haredi community.
